Embedding Rational Expectations in a Structural VAR: Internal and External Instruments for Set Identification

We propose a novel approach that embeds Rational Expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR founded on a purely theoretical framework, which does not rely on any mapping strategy to a reduced form. Alternatively, a separate strategy considers data external to the SVAR to aid in the identification of structural shocks on a purely empirical basis. We report clouds of responses from a RE-consistent theoretical model as well as regions of plausible responses from the empirical approach. We conclude that a Taylor Rule characterization of monetary policy shocks remains relevant when the theoretical RE-SVAR is properly augmented with information from fluctuations—or momentous events—in markets that garnered increased attention since 2008, such as reserves and various money markets

Análisis contrastivo entre el gerundio en español y la partícula aspectual 着 (zhe) en chino

Este trabajo presenta un análisis contrastivo de dos elementos lingüísticos: el gerundio del español y la partícula aspectual 着 (zhe) del chino. Para abordar la problemática de la comprensión y el uso del gerundio en español, los estudiantes chinos suelen recurrir a categorías de palabras semejantes al gerundio de su lengua materna o del inglés. En su aprendizaje de español, el equivalente natural para la comprensión del gerundio lo protagoniza la partícula aspectual 着 (zhe), ya que comparte el significado aspectual imperfectivo. De esta forma, en el presente estudio nos proponemos contrastar estos dos elementos lingüísticos a través de sus características morfológicas, sintácticas y semánticas, con el propósito de alcanzar un resultado práctico que asista a los alumnos chinos en su adquisición del español como segunda lengua extranjera

Self-Supervised Speaker Verification Using Dynamic Loss-Gate and Label Correction

For self-supervised speaker verification, the quality of pseudo labels decides the upper bound of the system due to the massive unreliable labels. In this work, we propose dynamic loss-gate and label correction (DLG-LC) to alleviate the performance degradation caused by unreliable estimated labels. In DLG, we adopt Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to dynamically model the loss distribution and use the estimated GMM to distinguish the reliable and unreliable labels automatically. Besides, to better utilize the unreliable data instead of dropping them directly, we correct the unreliable label with model predictions. Moreover, we apply the negative-pairs-free DINO framework in our experiments for further improvement. Compared to the best-known speaker verification system with self-supervised learning, our proposed DLG-LC converges faster and achieves 11.45%, 18.35% and 15.16% relative improvement on Vox-O, Vox-E and Vox-H trials of Voxceleb1 evaluation dataset.Comment: Accepted by Interspeech 202

The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission

The federal funds rate became uninformative about the stance of monetary policy from December 2008 to November 2015. During the same period, unconventional monetary policy actions, like large-scale asset purchases, show the Federal Reserve’s intention to depress longer-term interest rates. This paper considers a long-term real interest rate as an alternative monetary policy indicator in a structural VAR framework. Based on an event study of FOMC announcements, I advance a novel measure of long-term interest rate volatility with important implication for monetary policy identification. I find that monetary policy shocks identified with this volatility measure drive significant swings in credit market sentiments and real output. In contrast, monetary policy shocks identified by otherwise standard unexpected policy rate changes lead to muted responses of financial frictions and production. Our results support the validity of the risk-taking channel and suggest an indispensable role of financial markets in monetary policy transmission